Geopolitics

Facu
29 April, 2026

Global competition for semiconductors and technological sovereignty: the new axis of economic power

The semiconductor industry was consolidated as a central strategic asset in the global economy.

The acceleration of digitization, the growth of artificial intelligence and the expansion of technology-intensive industries position chips as a critical input for the competitiveness of countries and companies.

Disruption in supply chains during the pandemic and geopolitical tensions between the United States and China led to a technological sovereignty agenda in major economies. Governments and corporations activated investment plans, subsidies and industrial policies aimed at ensuring access, local production and control over key technologies.

Industrial geopolitics and critical chain control

The domain of semiconductors defines the capacity for innovation in sectors such as automotive, defence, telecommunications and consumer electronics. Global production has a high geographical concentration, with Asia leading advanced manufacturing, especially in Taiwan and South Korea.

The United States strengthened its strategy through the CHIPS and Science Act, with over $50 billion to encourage local production and reduce external dependence. Europe activated the European Chips Act with similar objectives, seeking to double its share in global production by 2030.

China, for its part, increased its state investment to develop domestic capacities and reduce technological constraints imposed by the West. This dynamic is a scenario of structural competition between economic blocs.

Record investment and state subsidies

The volume of investment in semiconductors reached historical levels. Leaders such as Intel, TSMC and Samsung announced plant expansion plans in the United States, Europe and Asia, driven by tax incentives and direct subsidies.

According to estimates by McKinsey and Deloitte, the industry will exceed $1 billion in annual income by 2030, with artificial intelligence-driven growth, electric vehicles and high-performance computing.

The production capacity becomes a strategic variable. The construction of fabs requires investments of more than USD 10 billion per plant, as well as specialized talent and robust technological ecosystems.

Asia, the United States and Europe in a race for technological autonomy

Taiwan maintains a dominant position in the manufacture of advanced chips, with TSMC as a central actor. South Korea, through Samsung, holds a strong presence in advanced memory and logic.

The United States is moving forward in industrial relocation with investments in Arizona, Texas and Ohio, while strengthening restrictions on technological exports to China.

Europe prioritizes the attraction of global manufacturers and the development of its own capacities, with Germany and France as emerging industrial poles.

Global competition is organized around access to technology, talent, intellectual property and financing. Each block builds its strategy with a focus on resilience and autonomy.

Impact in Latin America and strategic opportunities

Latin America is a limited participant in the semiconductor value chain. The region presents opportunities in segments such as assembly, testing, technological services and provision of critical minerals.

Countries with lithium, copper and other strategic inputs become relevant in the new technology map. The public-private sector articulation defines the ability to capture value in this transformation.

Las empresas de la región enfrentan un entorno donde el acceso a tecnología y componentes impacta directamente en costos, producción y competitividad. La planificación estratégica incorpora variables geopolíticas y de abastecimiento como factores críticos.

Strategic perspective

La industria de semiconductores establece un nuevo estándar de competitividad global. Las empresas necesitan desarrollar estrategias de abastecimiento diversificadas, alianzas tecnológicas y capacidad de adaptación a entornos regulatorios cambiantes.

La integración en cadenas globales de valor exige inversiones en talento, innovación y capacidades industriales. La localización de operaciones y la cercanía a hubs tecnológicos adquieren mayor relevancia.

La soberanía tecnológica se traduce en control de procesos críticos, acceso a conocimiento y capacidad de innovación sostenida. Las decisiones estratégicas en este sector impactan directamente en la posición competitiva de empresas y países.

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Facu
26 March, 2026

The new geopolitics of natural gas: reconfiguration of global flows, actors and strategies

The global natural gas market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes and an accelerated energy transition.

The war in Ukraine, the friction in the Middle East and the growing competition between energy powers have redefined trade flows, altering both prices and global supply strategies.

In this new scenario, natural gas —and particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG)— It is consolidated as a critical resource not only from an energy, but also from a geopolitical point of view.

The break of the traditional model

Historically, trade in natural gas was structured around long-term contracts and relatively stable pipeline networks. Europe was heavily dependent on Russian supply, while Asia consolidated its demand through strategic agreements with producers in the Middle East.

However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point. The drastic reduction in Russian supply to Europe forced an urgent reconfiguration of the market.

Europe accelerated the diversification of suppliers, increasing LNG imports from the United States, Qatar and Africa, while investing in regasification infrastructure.

The rise of LNG as global commodity

The liquefied natural gas has gained prominence as a flexible solution against the rigidity of the pipelines. Its maritime transport capacity allows to redirect flows according to demand, which introduces greater dynamism —but also volatility— on the market.

The United States is the world's leading LNG exporter, driven by its shale gas production. Qatar, for its part, is moving forward with ambitious expansion projects to consolidate its long-term leadership.

This change transforms gas into an increasingly global commodity, similar to oil, although with logistical and contractual particularities.

Asia and Europe: competition for supply

The growing demand in Asia, especially in China and India, intensifies competition for LNG shipments. This creates price and availability tensions, particularly in times of high seasonal demand.

Europe, which managed to stabilize its supply after the initial crisis, now faces the challenge of sustaining its energy security in a context of global competition.

The result is a more interconnected market, but also more sensitive to external shocks.

Impact of geopolitical conflicts

Tensions in the Middle East, a key region for energy production and transit, add an additional factor of uncertainty. Any disruption on strategic maritime routes can significantly affect global supply.

The energy policies of major powers —including sanctions, trade restrictions and subsidies— have a direct impact on market dynamics.

Strategic perspective

Opportunities

  • Expansion of LNG infrastructure investments (terminals, transport, storage).
  • Development of new export markets in Africa and Latin America.
  • Integration of gas as transition energy into energy matrices.
  • Innovation in liquefaction and energy efficiency technologies.

Risks

  • High price volatility by geopolitical factors.
  • Critical maritime routes unit.
  • Regulatory tensions in the framework of the energy transition.
  • Risk of over-investment in renewable acceleration scenarios.

Implications for Latin America

The region presents a double opportunity:

On the one hand, countries with gas resources such as Argentina (Vaca Muerta) or Brazil can position themselves as strategic suppliers in the global market.

On the other hand, the need for clear infrastructure and regulatory frameworks will be critical to attracting investment and scaling up its participation.

The challenge is to balance gas development as a strategic asset with decarbonization commitments.

Strategic keys for companies

  • Diversify supply sources and contracts.
  • Incorporate geopolitical intelligence into decision-making.
  • Investing in flexible infrastructure (LNG).
  • Assess scenarios of energy transition and future regulation.
  • Develop energy risk management capacities.

The reconfiguration of the natural gas market reflects a profound change in the global energy balance. Beyond geopolitical conjunctures, the sector is moving towards a more flexible, interconnected and competitive model, where adaptive capacity will be key to capturing value.

In this context, understanding global dynamics and anticipating scenarios becomes a strategic differential for energy companies.

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